PSA: Exponential Growth II
Last month is not the same as this coming month.
Cases will rise by a LOT.
It is worth being extra careful as small decisions can have big impacts.
So — exponential growth is insane.
With unchecked exponential growth and a doubling time of half a week, virus growth in the Bay would look like:
Starting with 8 people = 1/10,000
Each week of month one: 1/5,000 -> 1/1250 -> 1/312 -> 1.2%
Each week of month two: 4.8% -> 19% -> 76% -> 100%
In the numbers above, the Bay Area is right around the first week of month two.
We don't have unchecked growth — shelter in place slowed that a lot, and when a virus hits 1% of a population it begins to slow. Once 20, 40, 60% of people are infected it's much harder to find someone to infect.
But among essential workers, the curve is likely not flattening. Over the next month, expect a large proportion of essential workers to get Covid.
What does that mean?
For you — it means that things that were low-risk a month ago are high-risk now. It means that you should assume that anyone you interact with has the virus, and taking steps not to pass it along. It means keeping distance unless you ABSOLUTELY need to.
It means half-measures are less and less effective, and full-measures are needed.
It also comes at a time when many are weary of the measures and might be laxing. I am noticing that desire in myself and fighting against the urge with this knowledge.
It also means now is the time to donate masks, do whatever you can to help.
This isn't a time to be fearful, it's a time to be careful and conscientious out of love for each other. Smiles aren't contagious, other people are not the enemy — let's keep keeping distance and get through this together!